Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the country and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has gone on in universities but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two articles that aim for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless official who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has possesses important lessons to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster should participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
